I get asked all the time if you should wait or buy now?

I think now is a great time!
Interest rates under 5%
Tax credit is good till April 30th – Close by June 30th
FHA loans still only 3.5% down

Many people also want to know what I think will happen to the housing market in 2010?

I think prices could soften but not more than 10% – especially in the affordable under $300k range or close-in.
I also think interest rates which are currently at 5% will be around 6% by end of 2010.
Rates going up 1% off set any gains a buyer gets even if prices drop 10% = same monthly payment.
I also do not think they will extend the tax credit past April 30th and for most buyers that’s an $8,000 benefit that will likely be gone if you wait too long.

So what does that mean in simple numbers?

If you bought a 250k house now at 5% interest and qualified for the tax credit your net purchase would be 242k and your payment would be roughly $1,275 if you put 20% down

If rates go to 6% and you want the same payment of $1,275 you have to pay 10% less or $225,000 and there’s no credit either so $8,000 of incentive is gone.

I can’t predict the future but the government is planning on no longer buying mortgage backed securities and when they do it will likely drive rates up.

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Market maintains strength going into Spring

Inventory remains balanced throughout much of the metro area and now favors sellers close in. Prices for move in ready homes in the core of the city should start seeing slight increases in sales price. The big wild card this Spring will be bank owned properties [REO] which sell at a discount but generally need work to compare to homes prepared for sale by individual home owners.

This localized home inventory report helps give context to the metro statistics that often make headlines. Real estate is a local affair and this report shows which parts of town and which types of property are selling and which ones are sitting. Inventory is figured in months with 6 months being balanced, less than 6 months favoring sellers and more than 6 months favoring buyers. I use current active listings and 6 months of sold data from the RMLS to create this report.

PORTLAND INVENTORY REPORT 020110

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Supply and Demand are the two things that drive the market. It is the simplest way to see where things are going at any given time and where they might go in the future.

Below is a link to a very in depth report on housing supply and demand predictions for the Portland area.

Are you curious to see where we’re going?

http://www.portlandonline.com/portlandplan/index.cfm?c=51427&a=283476

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593 homes were sold in Portland in December, down from 723 in November. I had predicted 500 and the normal sales slow down of the holiday season but we finished 2009 MUCH better than we started it in January.

Wild cards: Tax credit has been extended to April 30th 2010 and new move up buyer tax credit added. Foreclosures are still going up in Oregon.
I’m predicting around 400 closed sales in Portland (areas 141, 142, 143 & 148) in January. Investors will begin to emerge as a major part of the market this Winter and we’ll see a lot more homes on the market come March.

Sales volume is a leading indicator for price. To help predict where the market is going I publish this sales volume trend report. The wisdom is that price follows volume so when you see a market trending higher in sales, prices will soon follow up and when sales volume is low, prices will stay flat or fall.

PORTLAND sales volume 011510 pdf

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I recently helped a client buy this duplex in SE Portland. If you’ve been thinking about buying or you need to sell your home give me a call at 503.901.8100. I’m here to help you with any of your real estate needs and I always appreciate your referrals.

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